THE GOOD ROAD EFFECT

(Image Source)

Have you ever heard of the butterfly effect? A little insect flaps its wings somewhere in Kenya and a mango tree falls somewhere else in India, absurd right? The phenomenon is actually talking about how a seemingly random sequence of events can link cause and effect. For instance, the flapping wings of a butterfly may attract a child and this young child may reach for it, said child may then accidentally knock his mother's flowerpot off their apartment’s window sill while reaching and the falling pot may intercept a stray bullet whose trajectory may be amended - the apartment is on the second floor. The amended bullet may hit a man but miss his vital organs by an 'amendment' and this said man may survive the hit and decide to move to India for safety (don’t judge his choice of a safe haven). He may get to Mumbai, India where he may see a mango tree and decide to build a house where it stands, the tree may then be cut and finally, it may fall. Ladies and gentlemen, as improbable as it sounds, the butterfly effect! 

Do you live in Lagos or pretty much any city in Nigeria, Africa or the world, with less than pliable roads? Does it take you more than double the time it should to get to work, take your children to school or even get back home after a stressful day? If yes, then you must be suffering from the effects of bad roads - or a poor transport system. If you are a Las Gidi resident like myself, then the misbehaviour of danfo-drivers is definitely a source of serious headache but for today, let us turn a blind eye to all but the road.

What do roads have to do with butterflies, Kenya or mango trees, you may ask, and my answer would be simple; everything! You see, I have lived in a popular estate that was built by the Federal Government in 1977 for a very long time, the estate whose symbol is the Benin mask that was *coughs* borrowed by the British and is still in their possession till today - lol, no comment. So, for so many years the road linking FESTAC (the estate) to the more popular Oshodi-Apapa express way that leads to Nigeria’s busiest port was not motor worthy. To put its worth in figures, I can estimate that the number of cars that passed this particular road in the more than ten years it was dilapidated was not up to a thousand a year. That thousand a year would make more sense when I tell you that since the revival of the very same link road not less than ten thousand vehicles ply that route every day (my estimation).

The impact of streets and highways worthy of the name can never be overstated. If you have ever been in an economics class or done anything about business then I am almost certain that you will remember perfect transport networks as one of the principal factors unreservedly essentially for a venture to survive, even if not 'perfect', then something that is at least worthy of the name - the effect of a single good stretch of road is, in my opinion, butterfly-like.

My simple answer ‘everything’ to what roads have to do with butterflies and mango trees means that these beautiful fluttery insects possess powers ranging from birth; pollination, through to death; the felling of trees. In the same way, the butterfly-like impact that roads have on people and their lives ranges from life; time through to death; money & stress. The connection between cause (road or insect) and effect (time, money, stress, life or death) may be vast and intricate but the existence is, in my opinion, unquestionable. Observe...

(Image Source)

Let’s go back to Lagos for a bit. As at 2014, the reported Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the state was $91 billion, this was at that time eighteen percent of the Nigeria’s total GDP. In the same 2014, the reported income per capita for Lagos for the year was $4,333; given a state population of about 21 million - buckle up, we are about to do some mathematical gymnastics here.

Now, despite the fact that bad roads cause super traffic jams that keep people grounded for up to 6 hours (like go-slow on the Benin-Ore expressway of the early 2000s), we shall stick to our initial assumption of ‘double the time’ and also to other general assumptions like ‘Time is money’, everything else being equal; ceteris paribus.

The bad road effect:

Now, taking into cognisance the 2014 unemployment rate (UR) in Nigeria, reported as 24 percent and its labour force (LF) percentage estimated as 27.5 percent (from 2010 data), the working Lagos population is approximately 4.4 million [21m people x 76% (1 - UR) x 27.5% (LF)] and assuming that it should take an hour on average for these working citizens to commute through their daily economic activities then by the assumption of ‘double the time’, we lose at least 1.6 billion hrs every year in Lagos (4.4m people x 1 hr x 365 day).

Stay with me now...

The next question then is what is a Lagosian’s time worth? The answer based on 2014 income per capita is $0.49 per hour ($4,333 ÷ 8760 hrs/yr). To wrap it up, residents of The City of Excellence lose at least $180 annually ($0.49 x 1 hr x 365 days) just because of bad roads (chai, see money!) and Lagos itself, a whopping $794 million each year (*faints*). I am obliged to state here that this is a very simplistic estimation; I do not have a PhD in econometrics or any mathematical-gymnastics course like that so abeg no vex (I dey beg o!).

Ladies and gentlemen, fine boys and fine girls, what is the good road effect? What is so important about roads that great civilizations of old like the Dynastic Chinese, Pyramidal Egyptians and Empiric Romans knew to construct several kilometres worth for their chariots and horses? It is an open secret that a single good stretch of road like the partially revitalised Benin-Ore expressway, the partially revitalised Oshodi-Apapa expressway and the Lekki-Epe expressway can reduce the toils and tears of the men, women and children who ply it daily while stealing back those millions of leaking Naira.

This is the good road effect; 

'Saving money and bringing back happiness.'

What could be better?

If the Good Road Effect would bring money and happiness then imagine what the Good NEPA Effect would achieve. Happy May Day! There was no work today so I hope you slept at home and eat eba, fufu or tuwo.

Up NEPA and God bless Nigeria!

(Image Source: Pending)

Next